The Future of the GTA Rental Market: What the Next Decade May Bring

The future of the GTA rental market will be shaped by population growth, how fast new housing is built, interest rates and changing household needs. Nobody can predict exact rents ten years out. But some trends are already clear, like more basement units and garden suites, an aging population and steady demand for family-sized rentals such as bungalows.

Why predicting rents is so hard

Rental markets depend on many moving parts. Population growth, immigration policy, job markets, interest rates and construction all change over time, often in ways no one expects.

The last few years showed how fast conditions can shift. Treat any ten-year forecast, including this one, as a set of possibilities rather than a promise. The goal is to understand the forces at work so you can plan for more than one outcome.

Trend 1: More secondary units and gentle density

Ontario’s More Homes Built Faster Act (Bill 23, 2022) allows up to 3 residential units on most serviced urban residential lots. That means more basement apartments, garden suites and laneway homes across the GTA.

Bungalows are often ideal for these units because of their full basements and wide lots. Over the next decade, expect more rental supply to come from existing neighbourhoods, not just new towers. For tenants, that could mean more ground-level options. For owners, it means more competition for tenants in some areas.

Our guide to adding a rental unit to a bungalow explains how the process works.

Trend 2: Changing demographics

An aging population

As more Ontarians reach retirement age, demand for single-level homes is likely to grow. Some downsizers will rent rather than buy, to free up equity and avoid maintenance. Bungalows with no-step entries, main-floor laundry and wide doorways may be especially sought after.

Population growth

The GTA has long grown through immigration and people moving from elsewhere in Canada. Federal changes to immigration and student levels have slowed growth recently. How these levels change over the decade will be one of the biggest drivers of rental demand.

Multigenerational living

More families are combining households to share costs and care. Bungalows with separate basement units suit this well, which could affect how many units reach the open rental market.

Trend 3: Interest rates and the rent-vs-buy balance

When buying gets cheaper, some renters become owners. When it gets harder, more people keep renting.

As of September 2026, the Bank of Canada policy rate is 2.25%, and the GTA resale market is moving toward balance. As of August 2026, the average GTA price was $993,410, down 2.7% year over year. If buying stays more accessible than in recent peak years, some demand may shift from renting to owning. If rates rise again, rental demand could firm up.

Trend 4: What renters will want

• Space to work from home, even part of the week.
• Private outdoor space, like a yard or patio.
• Energy efficiency to keep utility bills manageable.
• In-suite laundry and parking in suburban areas.
• Accessibility features for older renters and people with mobility needs.
• Good transit access as new lines and GO service expand.

Trend 5: More rules for landlords

As more homeowners add units, cities are paying closer attention to safety and quality. Over the past several years, GTA municipalities have expanded second-unit registration, short-term rental licensing and, in some places, rental licensing programs.

Expect that direction to continue. Over the next decade, landlords may face more inspections, registration and paperwork. That’s good news for tenants, who get safer homes, and a reason for owners to build legal units from the start.

Illegal units may become harder to operate as enforcement grows. Owners who’ve already done the work, with permits, fire separation and proper exits, will be in a stronger position.

What this means for bungalow owners and renters

If you are…	Consider…
An investor	Legal units, energy upgrades and accessibility features that appeal to long-term tenants
A homeowner	Whether a basement unit or garden suite could add income or house family
A renter	Building savings and credit so you can choose between renting and buying
A downsizer	Renting a bungalow as a flexible step after selling a larger home

Frequently asked questions

Will GTA rents go up over the next ten years?

No one can say for sure. Population growth, new supply and interest rates will all play a role, so plan for a range of outcomes.

Will more basement apartments lower rents?

More supply can ease pressure on rents, but the effect depends on how many units are built and how fast demand grows.

Are bungalows a good long-term rental investment?

Their lots, basements and single-level layouts give owners flexibility. Returns still depend on the price you pay and how well you manage costs.

Should I rent now and buy later?

It depends on your savings, income and plans. Renting while you build a down payment, perhaps in an FHSA, is a common path.

The bottom line

The future of the GTA rental market will depend on supply, demographics and rates. Bungalows are well placed thanks to new unit rules and steady demand for single-level, family-sized homes.

If you’re planning ahead as an investor, browse investor-friendly bungalows for sale and read our outlook on the future of bungalows in Canada.